Texas GOP: does the "core" hold the reins?

(This is an article I wrote for the the Republican Leadership Council.)

Texas’s 2010 gubernatorial primary is a key battle for the Republican Party's future.

Social and hard-line neoconservatives control the Texas GOP: its platform contains extreme views, including banning birth control pills, withdrawing from the United Nations, and even stopping abortions that save the life of mothers.

Incumbent governor Rick Perry's ideology is compliant: he appoints creationists to the state school board, supports regulating private bedroom conduct, and verbally supports Texas secessionists.

Enter Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, an all-but-announced competitor for the gubernatorial nomination. While carrying solid economic and political conservative credentials, Senator Hutchison has nuanced social stances, including fundamental support of Roe vs. Wade and support for stem cell research. Hutchison already distresses Texas GOP's base, most recently evidenced by an allusion that accomodating center-right Republicans like Hutchison makes the GOP a whorehouse.

Governor Perry has the twin advantages of incumbency and being the darling of the Texas GOP base. Should he not take the primary, what does that say of the Texas Republican Party's future?